Did you notice that John Howard did not explicitly state anything about stepping down as Liberal Party leader last night? Even though he talked about the future opposition leader, and endorsing Peter Costello for the job, it was taken for granted that he would not hang around as Leader of the Opposition.

I'm betting that he hopes he loses in Bennelong so that he can get the agony of defeat over with quicker. Irony is, he might yet be saved by postal votes. All that means is that Maxine McKew will win the by-election in early 2008.

Not easy to interpret senate figures so early in the piece, but a couple of observations so far:

The Democrats are history. They have performed dismally in Queensland (0.09 quotas on first preference at the moment). They're on 0.11 quotas in Victoria which makes it damn hard for Lyn Allison. In New South Wales, they've been outpolled by the DLP, which has been spent force in Australian politics from the time Vince Gair was despatched to Dublin.

It's not ready to call yet. Labor is getting closer to winning the election, but not yet. I still think John Howard is gone. Malcolm Turnbull appears safe. Peter Costello was looking shaky in Higgins for a short while. The incredibly bad Danna Vale has made it home in Hughes. I think Bob Baldwin has retained Paterson, but I know from past elections that this electorate can take days to decide.

Polls have closed in NSW, ACT, Victoria, Tasmania. Sky News are calling a Labor win on the strength of their exit polling already. The AEC tells us that 0.00% of the vote has been counted, with 150 seats still in doubt.

My prediction for the final seat count: ALP 82, L/NP 66, Independent 2.